Minnesota Math: When 81% on Welfare Becomes ‘Nothing to See Here’

THE VALLEY VIEWPOINT

Here we go again.

Another data point drops, this time from the Center for Immigration Studies, and suddenly the political class in Minnesota is clutching their pearls like they’ve just discovered gambling is happening in the casino. According to ten years of Census ACS data, 81 percent—yes, eighty-one—of Somali-headed households in Minnesota rely on at least one form of public assistance. That’s not a typo. That’s not a rounding error. That’s not “taken out of context.” That’s the number. And the minute it landed, the usual suspects sprinted to microphones to explain why the public shouldn’t worry about the public footing the bill.

This is the kind of story that gets brushed aside by editorial boards and “fact-checkers,” but for the people actually paying taxes in Minnesota—the ones who don’t have the luxury of ideology—the reality is a little harder to ignore. When four out of five households in any community depend on welfare, that’s not a “talking point.” That’s a systemic failure. It’s an economy that isn’t working, an immigration system that isn’t adapting, and a political leadership terrified of saying any of that out loud.

And let’s be honest: this didn’t happen in a vacuum.

Minnesota has spent the better part of two decades congratulating itself on being a “national model” for refugee resettlement while quietly side-stepping the parts of the model that aren’t quite working. Meanwhile, the Somali community—an established, deeply rooted community with enormous cultural and economic contributions—also finds itself unfairly entangled in the fallout from the massive fraud scandals, ICE raids, and political grandstanding that have dominated the headlines. Minnesota officials seem far more concerned about the optics than the outcomes.

And outcomes matter.

The average Minnesotan—working two jobs, juggling childcare, and watching property taxes climb—is told not to worry. That everything’s fine. That questioning the sustainability of welfare participation is somehow impolite. That pointing out numbers published by the U.S. Census Bureau is “dangerous.” Since when did arithmetic become controversial?

Here’s the truth no politician in St. Paul wants to say:

You cannot build a functioning social safety net when the net becomes the default setting instead of the emergency measure. And you certainly can’t pretend that a system is working when 81 percent of any group is stuck relying on it.

This isn’t about demonizing a community. It’s about calling out a political culture that has confused compassion with denial—and then stuck the taxpayer with the bill.

Minnesota leaders love to talk about being “bold” and “forward-thinking.” Here’s a bold idea: be honest. Admit the problem. Fix the system. Empower people to move off assistance, not stay trapped in it. And stop pretending that ignoring the data will make it go away.

Because numbers don’t lie.

Even when politicians do.

Published by Ed Kowalski

Ed Kowalski is a Pleasant Valley resident, media voice, and policy-focused professional whose work sits at the intersection of law, public policy, and community life. Ed has spent his career working in senior leadership roles across human resources, compliance, and operations, helping organizations navigate complex legal and regulatory environments. His work has focused on accountability, risk management, workforce issues, and translating policy and law into practical outcomes that affect people’s jobs, livelihoods, and communities. Ed is also a familiar voice in the Hudson Valley media landscape. He most recently served as the morning host of Hudson Valley This Morning on WKIP and is currently a frequent contributor to Hudson Valley Focus with Tom Sipos on Pamal Broadcasting. In addition, Ed is the creator of The Valley Viewpoint, a commentary and narrative platform focused on law, justice, government accountability, and the real-world impact of public policy. Across broadcast and written media, Ed’s work emphasizes transparency, access to justice, institutional integrity, and public trust. Ed is a graduate of Xavier High School, Fordham University, and Georgetown University, holding a Certificate in Business Leadership from Georgetown. His Jesuit education shaped his belief that ideas carry obligations—and that leadership requires both discipline and moral clarity. He lives in Pleasant Valley.

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